With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates trend lines using the median value, i. By contrast, in the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his rival in the days before the election.
As Mrs Clinton discovered in , the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them. Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress - House and Senate. A total of electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit to win. As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden - although the margins have tightened in recent days. Please update your browser to see full interactive. Last updated: 3 November. For Mr Trump, it's the battleground states he won big in that his campaign team will be most worried about. That's one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as low as things stand. The Economist thinks Mr Biden is "very likely" to beat Mr Trump while FiveThirtyEight , a political analysis website, sees Mr Biden as "favoured" to win the election but says the president could still come out on top.
The first , on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump's combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate. In the second debate , on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments. But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden's performance was more impressive. So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it's unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own. We only had a couple of days to mull over the first debate before President Trump's bombshell tweet in the early hours of 2 October revealed he and the first lady had tested positive for coronavirus. While the pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year, the focus had shifted to the Supreme Court after the death of long-serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.
So Mr Trump's positive coronavirus test put his response to the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of more than , people in the US, back under the spotlight. It's easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in and President Trump frequently does exactly that.
But it's not entirely true. Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn't mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival. Pollsters did have some problems in - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all.
Most polling companies have corrected this now. If Republicans win either race, they will retain control of the Senate. If Democrats win both races, they will control an evenly-divided Senate through the casting vote of incoming vice-president Kamila Harris.
The Democrats have maintained control of House of Representatives with a reduced majority. States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is more than 10 percentage points are classified as states we expect to be solidly in favour of one candidate.
If a state had less than two polls in the 60 days prior to election day, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to assign it a rating. Party breakdown numbers for the outgoing Senate include two Independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats.
Party breakdown numbers for the outgoing House of Representatives do not include five vacant seats and one Libertarian. US presidential election Presidential electoral votes by state data House and Senate results data. House of Representatives. Are the candidates performing as expected? Electoral votes by state Expected Biden Solid Democrat electoral votes in total ca California called democrat ct Connecticut called democrat dc Washington DC called democrat de Delaware called democrat hi Hawaii called democrat il Illinois called democrat ma Massachusetts called democrat md Maryland called democrat me Maine Statewide called democrat me 1 Maine District 1 called democrat nj New Jersey called democrat nm New Mexico called democrat ny New York called democrat or Oregon called democrat ri Rhode Island called democrat va Virginia called democrat vt Vermont called democrat wa Washington called democrat.
B- Zogby Analytics. President: Republican primary. Generic ballot. B- RMG Research. B Morning Consult. B- Ipsos. A Monmouth University. Donald Trump Favorability. Kamala Harris Approval.
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